Long-term Renewable Generation Modelling and Profiling

Shared weather

One Weather Draw for Demand and Generation

Wind and solar output are generated from the same spatially coherent weather and climate scenarios used by the demand simulator. A cold, still winter evening reduces wind output and raises heating demand in the same hour of the same scenario.

Fleet behaviour

Preserving Coincidence, Diversity, and Ramps

Because every site sees the same weather field, fleet-wide output keeps its correlated ramps, its geographic diversity, and its rare but decisive low-output events. Summing independent site forecasts would smooth exactly the hours that matter for adequacy.

• Correlated ramps across sites
• Diversity between regions and technologies
• Fleet-wide low-output events on the hours they actually occur

Distributed generation

Behind-the-Fence PV and Net Load

Rooftop and behind-the-fence solar are modelled where they are connected. Regional PV outlooks become feeder-level adoption scenarios, so net-load reductions and reverse-flow risk land on the feeders that will see them first.

Outputs

8760-Hour Probabilistic Generation Scenarios

Hourly P10–P90 generation profiles per site, per region, and for the fleet — each carrying the scenario identifier, weather draw, and model version that produced it.